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A sample issue
Sample issue
Why is the Pacific so warm right now?
A patch of the tropical Pacific has warmed well above normal, and that shifts winds and rain across the world. It is called El Niño, and this one is among the strongest ever measured.
It starts with the trade winds. Steady winds push warm surface water west, toward Indonesia. When they weaken, the warm water slides back east, and the loop that drives rainfall moves with it.
The effects have already arrived. Fires and haze in Indonesia, a dry Panama Canal and Peru's anchovy fishery closed for the rest of the year. Each is sourced in the explainer.
It is happening on a warmer planet. A strong El Niño on top of long-term warming is why global sea surface temperatures are at record highs.
What we don't know. How strong it will get. On 8 October the US Climate Prediction Center put the chance of a record-strength event at more than 83 percent for October to December. That is a probability, not a certainty.
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